Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 24.80% 0.00% 0.97
1 37.30% 50.40% 1.45
2 49.90% 101.20% 1.94
3 62.40% 151.60% 2.43
4 74.90% 202.00% 2.92
5 87.50% 252.80% 3.41
6 100.00% 303.20% 3.89

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 0.97
  • % of original R0: 24.8
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.45
  • % of original R0: 37.3
  • % Increase from current: 50.4

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.94
  • % of original R0: 49.9
  • % Increase from current: 101.2

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.43
  • % of original R0: 62.4
  • % Increase from current: 151.6

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.92
  • % of original R0: 74.9
  • % Increase from current: 202

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.41
  • % of original R0: 87.5
  • % Increase from current: 252.8

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.89
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 303.2