Social Distancing Scenarios

Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

• Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
• % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
• % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-05-24) level of social distancing / contact rate

Scenario	Percent orig. R0	Percent increase from current R0	Effective R0
0	24.80%	0.00%	0.97
1	37.30%	50.40%	1.45
2	49.90%	101.20%	1.94
3	62.40%	151.60%	2.43
4	74.90%	202.00%	2.92
5	87.50%	252.80%	3.41
6	100.00%	303.20%	3.89

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts

Scenario 0

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 0.97
• % of original R0: 24.8
• % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.45
• % of original R0: 37.3
• % Increase from current: 50.4

Scenario 2

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.94
• % of original R0: 49.9
• % Increase from current: 101.2

Scenario 3

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.43
• % of original R0: 62.4
• % Increase from current: 151.6

Scenario 4

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.92
• % of original R0: 74.9
• % Increase from current: 202

Scenario 5

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.41
• % of original R0: 87.5
• % Increase from current: 252.8

Scenario 6

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.89
• % of original R0: 100
• % Increase from current: 303.2